Mafia - The story of Edgeville - Town Square

[Hugman]

The thing you're not accounting for is that we simply don't know if there are all roles represented in this game. There could be no whore, there could be 4 trackers, whatever, you catch my drift.

Imma let this wall sink in before I give my thoughts on it!

Yeah, It is totally possible that Palmar listed the whore and miller, but didn't actually put them in the game. However, personally I feel that If he listed those roles, he would have included them, otherwise, it gives an edge to the Mafia straight off the bat, If we are looking for roles that don't actually exist in the game.

Also Arches (Keeping in mind, how much I trust Arches right now), has openly claimed "as the tracker, he has be cock blocked, by the whore". Personally, I think he either is the whore, or the Godfather.

[Tyler]

2 ninjas is a big assumption. There could be 1 or maybe even 0...

I decided it would not have been very fair to the village when I looked at the chance of us winning if there were 2 ninjas. If there are we cannot expect to get a majority to lynch, so it is probably just best to act as if there is one.

[kawe]

Pretty good post Hug for sure, and while I'll give it some more detailed thought later on, I think it's reasonable at least, though assuming as many as four villagers and two ninjas, I'm not sure what our reasoning is for that, and it's like you say, kinda relying on reading Palmar.

Regarding unused roles, I'm kinda sharing your opinion on this. I think it's possible but really unlikely; I would eat my own hat if we didn't have a cop at least, that would completely screw the game. A game with no hookers..? Not gamebreaking but pretty fringe chance. No ninjas is something more believable since I guess it wouldn't affect most of the game, but given that we had that night with two mafia kills, and only one identified vigilante I'm really strongly leaning towards there being one, maybe two.

[Hugman]

Pretty good post Hug for sure, and while I'll give it some more detailed thought later on, I think it's reasonable at least, though assuming as many as four villagers

Well, I am  sure there is at least four villagers, as 3 are dead, and I know I am one (obviously you cannot be certain yourself, but I can).

[Hugman]

Anyway, there are many different Senarios how it could be, but I am trying to get some common flaw in the current "claimed" roles.

The main thing, seems imo to be 2 trackers.

Arches, If you are innocent, you should list, since night 1 onwards, who you tracked, what was the result.

You should have been doing this anyway, if you are the tracker, since it gives the town data, to work with. Plus there isn't any downside, as you have been "exposed for several days, and not been killed... The fact that you haven't been, is bloody suspicious.

[Tyler]

I still can't see much further that Grax being mob. As he even asked Vorte to investigate him I think it is likley he is the godfather. Me and hug as the final 2 villagers would make 5 total at the start.

Note that as it is probable the ninja has used one kill already he has to save his last one for later in the game if he wants to win. He has to use it on the night when there are only 3 players left.

I either Arches or Hug could be a ninja (maybe niether), but I dont really care about ninjas. It is 4-3 village to non village atm. If we get a mob lynch it will be 4-2. The last mob will kill a villager to make it 3-2 next day. Then we will be set for some fun...

[Tyler]

Hmm i see you have voted for Arches hug. Why move from Grax? Do you think it more likley that Arches and Nach are the last 2 mobsters?

It is possible they tried to kill Arches the other night, but he survived with his ninja skills. I also accept he is possible mob, but Grax appears far more probable. I can also see it as possible that Arches could convince Vorte that he is a villager when in fact he is a ninja. It would be harder to do if he was in fact mob. The tracker thing is also good cover for a ninja as, even though he can investigate instead of track, it would allow him to incriminate someone with his knowlegde.

[Archz]

You shouldn't be supprised if you see Graxlos, Nachmanun and Hugman using their three votes on me, Tyler :p

[Hugman]

You shouldn't be supprised if you see Graxlos, Nachmanun and Hugman using their three votes on me, Tyler :p

Interesting Arches.

Once again, no actual useful data posted by you. Still no posting of your "so called tracker's data", and just you attempting to throw attention on to, we can only assume, your three (?) mob suspects?

The point is this people, do you think that there was 2 trackers at the start. And if you do, why hasn't Arch been posting his data??? Why has he been so quiet, even thought,  he would lose nothing by speaking up, as we all ready "know" he is the "tracker"? It has been common knowledge since day 2, and yet he remains quiet and unhelpful to the town as ever.

[Hugman]

Just to answer you question Tyler:

   After Shiftey was proven a green, my whole idea of who was what fell apart. One of the main reasons I felt Gaieos could be mob, was that he switched to defending Shiftey, but obviously that is only suspicious, If I "knew" that Shiftey was mob (which at the time, I felt very very sure, that Shiftey was mob). After it was proven he wasn't, my main theory against Gaieos, fell apart.

  When it came to voting last night, I literally had nothing to go on, on which of the two was more likely to be mob. I went with Gaieos, because at that time Shankski already have 5 votes to Gaieos's 3, and I felt that there are 2 ninjas and 2 mob in the game, so it was likely that they were somewhat working together to get a villager killed (which it turned out they were), and wanted to give Shankski a chance of not being hanged, incase the non-townies were working together to get another villager killed.

  As it stands, I have gone back to the blackboard to start anew, and Gaieos seems just as likely to be mob, as say, Nach, Kawe, or frankly anyone at this point (the shiftey thing has really thrown me). At this point I don't really trust anyone, even you.

So, in order to get some more data, I started working out how it could be.

And since Arches seems to still, even 3 days later, not want to post, or do something, anything! to help the town get a proper mob kill; he is the number one suspect. If he is a blue, then he is helping the mob, more than he is helping the town, which is retarded.

What has Arches actually done this game, apart from place his own vote?

He is supposedly a blue for fucks sake! And yet no "oh ok guys, this is what I have learned as a tracker, lets work to getting a kill".

He hasn't done shit. If he was a blue and hadn't been revealed yet, and was worried about being targeted and killed, that would be somewhat logical. That is what rucious did, and he did his job very well it seems. But Arches we have known about for 4 days now, and yet he still hasn't contributed.

That is fucked up. And unless you can show me something that gives a reason for his actions, or clearly prove another is more likely to be mob; I am keeping my vote on him, until the hanging.

In my opinion, the non-townies now outnumber the townies. Either we force people to stand up and be counted, or we lose.

[Archz]

Oh don't worry Hugman, I've been letting people know what little I have found. Just not you!

[Hugman]

Oh don't worry Hugman, I've been letting people know what little I have found. Just not you!

Oh ok.

So basically, rather than post your data openly, on the forums, which is beneficial to the whole town, even if you get whacked, as we can refer back to it; you have been what? Pming people individually? Telling people one at a time?

You know who else went around "spreading data" in pms "for fear the mob finds out"? Kesh.

And look how that turned out.

   No, as a "blue" who has be outed, for quite some time down, it is in your best interests to be as open and clear about what you know as possible. The whole "ill let them know via pms" is a mob tactic. It allows you spread falsehoods around, while not leaving enough data, for people to refer to later. For instance, say you tell kawe, and lets say Nach, via pm, that you found out that I left my house, "because you are a tracker". Lets say then I get enough votes to get killed, but I turn up green. Then, you get the mob to wack kawe in the night, and then next day accuse Nach. Now, Nach knows you are mob, but now has nothing to prove it with, as it was "all done via pms" and nothing was said on the forums, and you have a decent chance of getting Nach killed too.

And while we are on the subject of kills, what the fuck happened with Shankski???

Seriously, If you get accused, and there is a chance you could get lynched, you don't just sit back and take it!

YOU FUCKING SCREAM YOUR INNOCENCE TO HIGH HEAVEN ON THE FORUMS!

To do otherwise, is to help the mob win.

[kawe]

How can you not trust Tyler at this point? He can only be villager or ninja, and he's openly stated that he'll be following Vorte's vote - vorte being pretty much certainly a cop, if he's a fake we have some full-retard actual cop who hasn't said anything or we have no cop at all, both pretty damn unlikely - which kinda reaffirms that Tyler has the village's interests in mind. If he is a ninja then he is playing one insane game.

And yeah, Arches is defnitely starting to come under the spotlight a bit and not particularly well defending himself. On the other hand, after not pressing for a grax vote and kinda accepting the shanks thing and regretting the results of that, and previously not pushing for a ttam vote on day 1 then regretting that too, maybe I should actually stick up for my vote a bit more, so here goes.

Grax has done weird shit from the word go, a sample of which would include; claiming to be a doc right at the start, then saying it was some kind of joke, repeatedly saying the doc/vets/vigis should reveal themselves, getting annoyed when we actually agree with his vote, and now today with odd logic pointing the finger at me in irc telling me I'm 'likely' to be a ninja on the basis ninjas have two lives as well as veterans. I'm sure I don't need to point out the presentation of 'leap-of-faith' as though it's solid logic.

It's this running theme I keep seeing pop up in Grax's stuff in IRC along with general peculiar behaviour, like saying to vorte to investigate him as though it would be useful - and sadly vorte seems to have been suckered into this on what, with no doctor left, was probably his last chance to help us out - that has formed my suspicions of him. If these turn out to be misplaced, then I am gonna cry because that means we'll have had two townies who are just batshit crazy. I'd much prefer to work on the basis of Shiftey being an exception.

[Archz]

YOU FUCKING SCREAM YOUR INNOCENCE TO HIGH HEAVEN ON THE FORUMS!

He he yeah because that worked!

Just keep it coming. If I go out and say who I tracked every time, the mafia could get a clearer picture of where I were going, and just send out their people accordingly.

As for the defending part, I don't really see the point. Nothing I say should affect your vote too much, if so then you're being silly. I could be lying my teeth of. And don't get me started on the whole "I know I'm a townie" crap, that carry so little weight I laugh every time I read it.

As for me being mafia, why would I be so against lynching Shankski? I would've jumped on that wagon from the start, blaming the others for being so enthusiastic about it.

The ninja part is unfortunate, where I am more likely to be a ninja than Hugman, since me claiming to be a tracker puts us at 6 blues and 4 green no? (bear in mind that Palmar said he should balance it better next time, but I shouldn't be using that as a argument).

You need to ask yourself, who is more likely to have fallen for Dellings trickery and wasted a kill on a mafia the second night?

[Hugman]

Just to be clear Kawe, as I have stated before:

I am 100% sure Tyler isn't a mob.

I was, 80% sure that Tyler was green.

   Now however, with 3 greens already out, and myself being a fourth, while the town approaching the last half dozen people, I get more and more concerned, that he could be a ninja, as we are running out of people to be blues and greens. We can't all be greens, obviously. Tyler's actions from the start, have been towards helping the town win, but i worry that if he is a ninja, now is the time for him to be manipulating us. Who knows, I could be totally wrong on my estimation on how many greens left, and there could be 2-3 left.

Anyway, I would rather focus on getting a Mob lynch on someone I feel has been fucking suspicious/useless from the get go, rather than worrying about a person who has been helping the town win, who has a low chance of being a ninja.