Mafia II - Story of the Iron Edge - Ship Deck

[Tyler]

Whats this, a good post from Archz and content from Delling on the same page? Madness!

I don't think there is much chance TTaM was a random kill. He was too sus to be a good target, unless they knew he was the cop. I'm going with scenario 2. It is not very hard to imagine the scum coming up with "create a bandwagon to save Kesh, kill him at night, then be able to claim credit and cast doubt on Shiftey" as a play.

I don't want to give it all away until I absolutely have to, but just think about it.

Shiftey started the original vote train on Daekesh.

Shiftey has admitted that he knew about Daekesh's role as an Imperial.

I swing the votes away from Kesh, and then he turns up dead.

Think about it!

Look content! The problem with it is Shiftey was #4 to vote Kesh, so he didn't start the train. He then switched to Kawe when TTaM had 9 votes, well before any move away from TTaM.

Delling is missing analysis on Emptyy though. If Delling was imperial he would surely have at considered Emptyy being a rebel. Even if Delling was rebel and Emptyy imperial Delling would probably have tried to cast some doubt on Emptyy. There is nothing scum like more than confusion.

This lack of analysis is very telling. Yay for content.

[Yoica]

Quite a nasty turn of events and I can?t help but think that posts made just before and after the lynch/night actions are actually a sign of more aggressive rebel ?steering?. There are a couple of players that are losing sight of the bigger picture.

Mainly we have NO IDEA how many of each blue roles there are, so tonight might not be a dramatic as it would seem atm.

We still greatly outnumber the rebels and we?re getting more and more info to base things on.

Delling: Spamming posts of little importance although based on this Nach would?ve a rebel too, which was exactly the same logic Kawe applied. By that same logic Delling could be blue? And it backfired. His starting the Intrinsic bandwagon could be unintentional because at that time is seemed clear Tronz or TTaM would end up dying.

Intrinsic getting lynched.
 If Delling?s plan was intentional then a considerable amount of the other votes cast on Intrinsic should be considered highly suspicious, because there is no way such a fast swing can occur without a number of other rebels helpin galong. Looking at the vote chart Tronz voted for Intrinsic, probably randomly, very early on. However when it looked like Tronz might be in danger due to the unexpect and pure(?) random start from Grax* Delling makes a post claiming to protect himself, but it actually saved Tronz and not himself. 

I?ve only looked at Delling for now, but we still have almost 2 days and I need to do RL first. I?ll come back to my other suspicions later today/tmw.
Based on this post I think Delling is likely to be a rebel, but his actions seem desperate for a different reason than I initially thought.

##Vote: Tronz

Delling's actions seems to point toward saving Tronz making a bigger fish in my book.



*While writting this Grax went from rebel suspicious in my book to almost certainly an imperial.

[Yoica]

Tyler, just because someone doesn't analysis everyone doesn't make the not-analysised person automatically suspicious.

I still say Emptyy's play is just akward and just because Shiftey mention's TTaM telling him and Emptyy about the cop role first doesn't make Shiftey any less suspicious than Emptyy. It just means he posted earlier. If Emptyy was truely a rebel wouldn't he have stayed on TTaM and killed Shiftey at night? because he knew Shiftey knew about TTaM. Actually the only suspicious feeling I have atm on Emptyy is why Intrinsic and not Tronz?

Look content! The problem with it is Shiftey was #4 to vote Kesh, so he didn't start the train. He then switched to Kawe when TTaM had 9 votes, well before any move away from TTaM.

That is the sheer brilliance of Shiftey's play. He is one of the players I'll make a more in depth post about later, but here is a little taste of what I'm expecting. It was his post that actually convinced me to vote for TTaM. I'm guessing that around the time TTaM confided in Shiftey is also the time he moved away. What rebel wouldn't dream of having a cop as a friend? Anyway more analysis to follow later.

[Tyler]

All I?m saying Yoica is that Delling has not once questioned Emptyy. After last night?s events it?s pretty sus not to.

I agree it is worth checking Shiftey out. Personally I am not ruling much out at this point.

I also totally agree that the Intrinsic wagon might have started to save Tronz. The voting patterns are interesting on this one. I will defer to you, Star or someone else to do the analysis on that though

[delling2]

(FWIW, I have questioned Emptyy, but on IRC. Last night's post was short because I had to sleep. Now I gotta try and do some work, but will try to post around lunch.)

[Sintrael]

This is all hurting my brain.

I dont have time today, or the will, to sort out my thoughts on this.

I'm right in thinking that the next lynch is tomorrow night, so i'll make a proper post on my thoughts tomorrow at some point.

[Yoica]

Yes Sint, the lynching isn't until tmw midnight.

[Shiftey]

So I see some people are concerned with me and Emptyy knowing about TTaM's role. I am not gonna deny them the argument, as it's very valid. But I am gonna discuss 4 scenarios that are a possible result.

(Scenario 1): Shiftey is Imperial, Emptyy is a rebel: In this scenario, Emptyy would e hesitant to use his lynch on me, because he'd know I would be revealed as imperial which could lead to Emptyy being lynched. (This scenario ends with both of us dying)

(Scenario 2): Shiftey is a rebel, Emptyy is Imperial: In this scenario, Emptyy might not hesitate to kill me as he would be imperial and believe I am a rebel, however on the kill I would be revealed as imperial which would cast serious doubt on Emptyy and could lead to his lynch (This scenario ends with both of us dying)

(Scenario 3): Shiftey and Emptyy are Imperial: Refer back to scenario 2 really, Emptyy kills me, I am imperial, people suspect him and may be kill him. (This scenario ends with both of us dying)

(Scenario 4): Shiftey and Emptyy are both rebels: In this case we are both the worst rebels in the galaxy and should be killed immediately (This scenario ends with both of us dying)

So as you can see, in any case, we both die. Now worst case is you lose 2 dedicated players who have given their time, effort and spreadsheet making skills to the game. Best case is you kill one imperial and one rebel and again lose a dedicated player.

I dont see any win-win scenarios out of this one.

Choice is yours.

Mine is Delling...

[Starbrow]

Jesus christ... Okay, so what I think I can deduce from this is the following:

I'm thinking that it is rather likely that either Emptyy or Shiftey is a rebel, as they're the ones that had the information about his role at the time. However, I find it unlikely that they are both rebels, as they would then not have voulenteered that they knew about it. This means that as Emptyy is the Captain, he should shoot Shiftey, if Shiftey turns up green, Emptyy is a rebel and we lynch him.

Does this make sense? The alternative is that neither is a rebel and the real rebels got insanely lucky on night one, which I find much more unlikely.

Dellings complete lack of focus on Emptyy does also seem a bit... Weird. And the analysis of Shiftey is just flat out wrong. Shiftey was the fourth to vote for TTaM, so he by no means started the train rolling there. That seems like quite a blunder by Delling, so I'm gonna start off my vote there.

##Vote: Delling

PS. Shifteys post came up when I pressed post, so quick reply to that one:

The second scenario I think you got wrong. Why would you be revealed as imperial if you were a rebel when he shoots you? In fact, if you're a rebel and Emptyy is imperial, when he shoots you we would probably agree that he isn't a rebel and in fact NOT lynch him?

[Sintrael]

@ Shiftey's post

Scenario 2 and 4 are rendered totally useless being that you are one of the parties involved. Assuming that ur a rebel, which you could be 

[Shiftey]

I do realise that, but the moment me and Emptyy die you'll realise they are very accurate Scenario 2 is my way of saying that I am claiming to be imperial.

[Eetion]

3rd time is the charm....
##Vote: Delling

[Gaeios(Graxlos)]

So with the amount of players left we now have around 25% chance of lynching a rebel.
It seems there is a general consensus that either shiftey or emptyy is a rebel.
Why not vote for a 50/50 chance instead of a 25% chance?

[Gaeios(Graxlos)]

I dont quite see what delling did that was so suspicious tbh. Intrinsic was a logical choice imho. As mentioned earlier I did not see any of the main suspects as rebels and atleast it is confirmed that ttam was innocent.

[Tyler]

Probably because most of us think that Delling has more that a 50% chance of being a rebel...

Lets not go down the specious probability reasoning route again.