Mafia IV - Lord of the Rings -

[Yoica]

Prove that it statistically favours red yoica.

Until you can, I want to lynch you.

We know there are less reds than blue/green otherwise the game would already be over.
So lets say there are;
5 reds 5/12 (41.7%) chance we RNG lynch a red
4 reds (33%)
3 reds (25%)
2 reds (16.7%)

Hence statistically there is a bigger chance we'll lynch blue/green.

Well RNG could go both ways.

It puts the ball in the red hands though since they know whos red.

RNG completely removes the influences of reds.

[Grilldyret]

Is there a role description somewhere that can tell me which abilities different roles have? Or is finding that out a part of the game?

[Tyler]

Another game, another crazy opening gambit from TTaM. If he is read we should just kill him.

I'm not sure it can be true though, as who would be crazy enough to admit in their first post that they are scum. As ever though maybe that's what he wants us to think. Wanting blues to reveal themselves is def scum behaviour.

Palmar if RNG was the best town strat there would be no point in the thread. So we have to hope we can do better than RNG when scum hunting. I am pretty sure you know this already mind.

[Skymunken]

Maybe TTaM wants us to lynch him for whatever reason, we dont know. But I know Im gonna sit back and see some more people start talking before prematurely lynching a guy that could possibly be green.

[mayx]

Why aren't people discussing more? Isn't that the point of this waiting?

[Hugman]

Just throwing this out there:

Aside for the fact that Kesh has done some really stupid posts as Mafia in the game before, why are we considering not the idea he may have to make a post like this, as part of his pm/role (ie his pm states its compolsary)? Or that his role (if he is mafia) may be some sort of "Immune to lynch day 1", or some sort of mafia scrapegoat role, which, with him being lyched, helps them some how?

I mean, in my view, If Kesh was mafia, making a statement like he has, is totally suicidal, unless, there is some other logic behind it, i.e. he doesn't care if we know he is mafia, cos of his role rules, or he knows the mafia would benefit from us focusing on him.

Even if he is just being retarded, lyching him based upon what we currently know (ie he declared his redness day one) wouldn't be a massive benefit, as day two we still have this data, can compare it to what happen, who said what, and still lynch him.

To me this seems rather.... well like one mafia shouting "LOOK AT ME" while the rest of them cement their green-ness, to keep them alive for the coming days.

Palmar saying "lets just Rng day 1" is suspicious to me, as that's exactly what I normally say, to which he always has replied that I am being retarded by saying that. So him taking that tact is one of two things, imo:

1. He is red, and trying to get a rng green kill.

or 2. He is green, and just threw that out there as his opening gambit, to get the ball rolling, then going on to Yoica when he objected. This is more likely imo, as rng red kill is far more harmful than rng green kill early on.

I want to hear from grishnag.

[Hugman]

Bah.

The first line of the second paragraph in the above postshould read:

"...why are we not considering the idea..."

[Hugman]

So to reiterate:

Green claiming Red is totally pointless, as the reds know who there are, so you can't lie to them about being red. While the greens don't and you can get yourself lynched by this, therefore being nothing but counter productive to the town (even he couldn't be that fucking retarded right?)

So Kesh is Red.

However, Red claiming Red, is suicidal, unless it is A. Compolsary per role, B. the Red in question is immune to lynch, or C. the Reds benefit from the attention, and subsequent day one lynch of Kesh. As to what benefit that could be, i have no idea, not knowing there roles, however, must have some benefit.

The other, unlikely case, is that kesh is a Green, that must claim Red, as per his role instructions.

Either way, lynching a known Red, or a Green who must claim Red, day one, is not as beneficial to the town, as getting a no-known Red Lynch day one. As day two, we still know Kesh is Red.

[Skymunken]

Still haven't really heard anything from Grish, Surim, Grilly, Eetion, Nach or Maix, other than useless one liners.

Not sure if they are just inactive, or what the reason is. This is turning into an RNG lynch

[Skymunken]

But to add some to Hugman, I agree that its too obvious to lynch TTaM on day one for claiming red, it does not make sense in my head.

[Surim]

If you read the previous page you will see that I have posted multiple times with a similar view as Sir Hugman. Cant post much more without having other people to post first?

[Skymunken]

Ah, the first page didn't show up when I did my reply, my apologies to Surim and Eetion.

[Surim]

No problemo Anders. I have noticed Nach has been on the forum for a while now and has yet to make a post. Is he too busy posting on the Red's topic to post here?

[Skymunken]

The more we discuss and the more information is revealed, the greater chance green has of winning, so we are indeed being "crippled" by people not posting or discussing. But since its day one it is too early to jump your guns and say "He's red because he's not posting."

[Grilldyret]

I share this view on TTaM's post. I don't have much experience with these games, but it doesn't take a lot to realize that he either did it because he had to or because he's a red.

I would like to point my elven longbow at Palmar. First of all for suggesting this RNG lynch, which is blatantly a scumbag move as it would favor red. In addition to that, agreeing upon an RNG lynch kills the progress of the all-important discussion, which is something that would further boost the scum's chances of taking over.

When Yoica attacks his RNG philosophy, he strikes back with a lynch vote threat. It all just looks sketchy to me!