Mafia IV - Lord of the Rings -

[mayx]

Jeez, I could bet Surim was red, I am shattered. On the side I always had suspicion for Yoica, Tyler, Sky and Grish it is more than a suspicion, probably a sixth sense.
Hugman just seemed to change his mind more than others, maybe it just seemed to me that way, and I was just curious to see what he actually is up to.
I really can't tell who do I think is scum right now, because it got complicated after yesterday's lynch. But I bet there is a scum among my sixth sense.
In my opinion scums behaviour is this, just try to lie, hide, make townies and allies suspect each other, eliminate themselves, scum will try to fuel the fire in any quarrel between his suspects, so people got to watch for that.

[Hugman]

Right.

12 People in the game at the start.

Kesh Green .miss-lynched day one.

Palmar Blue . Night killed night one. God knows why Cwave decided to have our medic, tracker and role inspector rolled into one easily killed package. One can only hope that because they were one shot uses, he has put other blues in the game to compensate. Palmar being such a powerful role is Rng, so he hasn't balanced it based on him.

Surim Blue . Town messenger, god knows if he used it. If he did, and you are green, don't state it, just use what you know, to help guide us towards a Red lynch. Reds may claim he messaged them, to mislead us, or he may have not gotten any useful application out of it.


This is what I think:


9 people left. Likely tonight that we lose another townie. That leaves 8 players left. I recon there is either 3 or 4 Reds in the game, which means we are on thin ice. If there is 4 Reds, a miss-lynch tomorrow is game over. Either way we aren't doing well.

Nachmanun: He is green, or a blue that has used his one shot power. Grilly thinks that the "hand of god" post was a part of Palmar's final action. I don't necessarily think that is true, thought it could be. I think Nach was a blue that used his one shot power to prove he isn't red, and now having used it, is a basic green. I highly doubt that Cwave would be that evil to give the Reds a ability like that, so as far as I am concerned, he is green. At this point Nach, as you are the current proven green, you need to start being extremely fucking pro-active, and co-coordinating the lynch targets with people you trust.

Et: Personally I think based upon all the posts he has done so far, Et is green. He is a fucking moron, but green. It is yet to be seen if he will do anything effective, but he is posting with town intent, which cannot be said for the rest of you.

Tyler and Yoica, personally, I think they are both Red. Not going to go to much into it, as it is a longer post for tommorrow. They have posted, but it has been somewhat minimal, and they haven't been what i would call their normal effective townie selves. So I think at least one of them is definitely Red, but it is likely both of them are.

Maix: I think he is Red. Shifted vote from Grishnag to Surim, which sealed the lynch. Since there was no posting on this, and no indication, I think he was told to by fellow Reds, rather than him just been really new and stupid. There is a chance they sacrifice him, but it seals surim's lynch, and he can just claim he is new.

Skymonkey, Grilldyret, and Grishnag. Could be green, could be Red. Sky and Grilly have been posting at least. If there are 4 mafia, one of these is red, but since they haven't really done much which is effective, nor contributed in a way that makes it clear they are green, I can't tell. Stop being useless, start posting alot, and start pro-actively hunting and pushing for Red kills. Doing a post, and then voting and then leaving it at that until the lynch is useless. The Reds are co-ordinating, we should too. When lynch time approaches, MAKE FUCKING POSTS, BE ABOUT TO CHANGE YOUR VOTE SHOULD WE NEED! The Surim lynch was so fucking obviously a Red pushed bandwagon, but THERE WAS NOTHING WE COULD DO, BECAUSE YOU WEREN'T POSTING OR EVEN ABOUT TO HELP STOP IT.

Otherwise we call the game now.

[Nachmanun]

Current top suspects is Yoica, Skymonkey and Maix/Eetion btw - just saying. They seem scummy.
Elaborate hugmanpost once I get home from work.

[Grilldyret]

The Surim lynch was so fucking obviously a Red pushed bandwagon, but THERE WAS NOTHING WE COULD DO, BECAUSE YOU WEREN'T POSTING OR EVEN ABOUT TO HELP STOP IT.

Say this is true, the votes for Surim came in this order:
Yoica, Skymunken, Grishnag, me, Maix.

The first two came early, Yoica posted his vote just after posting this:

Surim: First he goes around kissing Palmar's ass and then bails on him as soon as Palmar changes his votes and Hugman in turn votes for Palmar. This could've been good red play if the bandwagoning on Palmar had continued on to lynch him. Then on day 2 he is shocked Palmar is dead?! Almost certainly a red imo

Turned out to be wrong despite his certainty. Skymunken joins in a few minutes later, not accompanied by a post in the thread.

After that comes Grishnag's vote. As far as I can see this is just as likely to be an attempt of saving his own skin rather than being a scummy move trying to get the bandwagon rolling.

Next comes my vote, I can't say anything other than that I was convinced at the time based on Surim's and other people's posts that he was scum. In hindsight, I probably would have changed my vote in the last few hours if I had reconsidered. This, of course, does not get me off the hook for helping to cause a blue death.

Maix' vote comes last, and the way I see it, Maix being red and Yoica being red are mutually exclusive unless they are pulling some confusing scheme.

So, to summarize my thoughts: Either Yoica is red and Grish/Maix are townies, or Grish/Maix are red and Yoica is townie. Leaning towards Yoica being scum at the moment, though!

[Skymunken]

I apologize for being so bad at sniffing out reds, both Surim and Palmar was wrong on my part, Surim at least seemed red because of his habbits.

In general Im having a hard time figuring out who's red and who's green :/

But I should point out that its a lie that I didn't talk about my suspicion about Surim after voting for him!

[mayx]

Maix: I think he is Red. Shifted vote from Grishnag to Surim, which sealed the lynch. Since there was no posting on this, and no indication, I think he was told to by fellow Reds, rather than him just been really new and stupid. There is a chance they sacrifice him, but it seals surim's lynch, and he can just claim he is new.

It just seemed so plausible that Surim was red, and he didn't really defend himself after a series of evidence were pointed out. I thought Grish was harmless and I just wanted to "seal" the one I believed was the right person. As I commented above - I was shattered after the truth was revealed.

Maix' vote comes last, and the way I see it, Maix being red and Yoica being red are mutually exclusive unless they are pulling some confusing scheme.

So, to summarize my thoughts: Either Yoica is red and Grish/Maix are townies, or Grish/Maix are red and Yoica is townie. Leaning towards Yoica being scum at the moment, though!

I like this way of thinking, I also suspect Yoica the most, he has been "running along the penalty line" ( avoiding too much attention ) and for the same reason I suspect Tyler and Skymunken. If this is not correct, suspects please explain.

[Gaeios(Graxlos)]

Post coming up.

[Gaeios(Graxlos)]

The last few days had been hard on Hugman, it had been hard telling friend from foe. Mr. Frodo had already fallen and who would be next?
 At this point he was only certain about one of the other townsmen, so he had decided to go and guard his life for the night.
 As the light grew dim outside, Hugman grabbed his sword, went outside and started heading for what he believed to be the house of his ally.
 He had only taken a few steps before a tall shadow blocked the moonlight from behind and before he had turned to see the cause, he was devoured by darkness.

Hugman has been killed

You are Samwise Gamgee, Town Mason Bodyguard.

Active Ability

Mister Frodo: You are Frodo’s closest and most faithful companion and you know for sure that mister Frodo only has the Town’s best intentions at heart. However, you and Frodo have become seperated and a such, you are offering your services to other people. Every night you must PM the hosts with a target of your choosing. Any kill actions performed on the target of your choice, will instead be redirected onto you.

[Grilldyret]

Right, this is it then. Not sure if Hugman used his power or was killed directly, wouldn't be a shocker if he was the target as he's by far the most outspoken townie.

Hugman getting killed naturally tells us that some or all of the assumptions he did were correct. The way I see it, this is the current soltaire of remaining players:

Tyler -Red
Yoica -Red
Maix/Skymunken/Grishnag (Unsure about these, no more than ONE of them is red, otherwise we would be screwed already. We should go for more confirmed reds first)
Nachmanun -Blue
Grilldyret -Green
Eetion -Green


Very sorry for the edit, forgot about mod colors and such, so I removed the colors and replaced them with words

[Eetion]

I think this game is pretty straight forward now.
First of grilly, i really dont think Skymonkey is anywhere to be Red so i would swing him down to the Green zone and for what matters Grishnag. I think it is tiem to realise that Grish is no more than a townie, a completely useless one (pretty consistent of his nature through out mafia games) and i see no threat from him, and i think we should look past his illuding behaviour.
Then to Maix, and i think im on to something when i say that he is being puppeteered by his fellow mafia companions. His votes and contributions seems like he has just been guided or told what to do and when to do it, throwing him out there. Which is why im gonna do my vote early on him.
The two remaining scums on my list are Yoica and Tyler.

Shout out to townies, this is the day to be very pro-active. We are hanging on a thin line here. It is far from over, but there isnt much room for missteps, so please dont waste town looking at Sky and Grish.
Im gonna post a bit more when we here from the rest.

[Grilldyret]

Skimming through the thread, I found this quite early in the thread:

Tyler = red, is it or is it not? Imo next to be lynched

Now, Maix votes for Yoica. Basically, either he is being masterfully puppeteered(?) by Tyler and Yoica to hide his identity, or he's not with them. Yoica/Tyler are the most obvious red at this point, I think we can agree on that.
There needs to be at least one more red though, possibly 2 (After re-counting I realise my above calculations were incorrect as there could be up to 4 scum left)

In my book, Maix is less of a red than Grish at least, can't seem to make up my mind about Skymunkk.

[Grilldyret]

And after re-recounting the numbers (No idea why this should be so hard for me), I see that we're 8 people left, meaning there could be a maximum of 3 scum as otherwise they would vote-nuke someone at the start of the day.

[Tyler]

I apologise for my lack of posts. Hopefully I will be able to make a few more this weekend, although an afternoon/evening in the pub beckons me today...

ET how has Grish gone from the player you would have voted for except you "fell asleep" to certain town?

Lets look at his voting record. Day one he was the second vote on Palmar, the other 3 who voted for Palmar are now known to be town. I cannot believe that the scum would not have put at least one vote into lynching their prime target. Day two he swings in behind the Surim train. Does so in his only large post. The only reason given in that large post was "supported RNG vote".

So now we are supposed to believe, with no extra info, that the player who came second in the mis-lynch vote is "no more than a townie". This is beyond sus, and leads me think that ET is also scum. He as done lots of talking without saying much this game. When he has said stuff he has been wrong though, with votes for Surim and Nach.

I'm not sure who the third red is. Probably Yoica or Maix.

[Tyler]

Oh I forgot to mention. Hugs last vote before he died was on Grish. The reds ignored a proven town, Nach, to kill Hugman. The only possible reason for this was that they were more worried about Hug than Nach...

[Cwave]

Deadline tonight @ 23:00 GMT +1